Modified information criteria and selection of long memory time series models31-07-2014
The problem of model selection of a univariate long memory time series is investigated once a semi parametric estimator for the long memory parameter has been used. Standard information criteria are not consistent in this case.
A Modified Information Criterion (MIC) that overcomes these difficulties is introduced and proofs that show its asymptotic validity are provided. The results are general and cover a wide range of short memory processes. Simulation evidence compares the new and existing methodologies and empirical applications in monthly inflation and daily realized volatility are presented.